1.Introduction

Oxfam in Uganda, with funding from Oxfam Hong Kong and in partnership with the Agency for Community Empowerment (AFCE), is implementing the Green Livelihoods and Opportunities especially for Women and Youth (GLOW) project in Terego District (Imvepi Refugee Settlement). The project promotes eco-friendly, resilient livelihoods for refugees and host communities, with a particular focus on women and youth.

As the project reaches its Final Evaluation stage (planned for August 2026 as per the Activity Concept Note and MEAL Plan), high-quality data analysis is required to turn the quantitative and qualitative data collected during the evaluation into robust, evidence-based findings. This consultancy focuses specifically on the data analysis component of the Final Evaluation to ensure timely, rigorous, and credible analysis that feeds into the overall evaluation report, learning, and accountability processes.

The analysis will support measurement of progress against the project’s logical framework indicators (income security, climate-smart agriculture adoption, poultry value chain results, clean energy utilization, and related gender and inclusion outcomes) and will apply OECD-DAC evaluation criteria where relevant.

This consultancy will generate robust analytical evidence to inform programming, learning, accountability, and future design of green livelihood and clean energy interventions for refugees and host communities in Terego District.

2. Background about Oxfam in Uganda

Oxfam is an international confederation of 22 affiliate organizations working together with partners and local communities in more than 90 countries to find lasting solutions to poverty and injustice. Oxfam in Uganda started work in the early 1960s, delivering development and humanitarian support as part of the global movement of people fighting to end inequality and injustice. Today, we continue to tackle the inequalities that make and keep people poor. We save and protect people’s lives in times of crisis. We work with people to build their resilience and rebuild their livelihoods. We enable vulnerable people’s voices to be heard and campaign for genuine, durable change.

Oxfam envisions Uganda free of extreme inequality and injustice; a society where citizens and particularly women across all age groups claim and exercise their rights and responsibilities and can influence decisions that affect their lives. Our one country program is hinged on four thematic areas: Inclusive Governance & Accountability, Resilient Livelihoods, Humanitarian Preparedness and Response; and Gender Justice & Women’s Rights.

3. Information about the Project:

Oxfam in Uganda, with funding from Oxfam Hong Kong and in partnership with AFCE, is implementing the GLOW project in Terego District (Imvepi Refugee Settlement), West Nile, Northern Uganda. The project duration is June 2025 to August 2026, with the Final Evaluation scheduled towards the end of key implementation phases (field period 18–27 August 2026 as per the Activity Concept Note).

The overall goal is to enhance growth of eco-friendly resilient livelihoods for refugees and host communities in Terego District. Key target groups are crisis-affected populations, especially women and youth (15–35 years).

Core intervention areas and approximate reach (from the project Logical Framework and MEAL Plan):

• Output 1.1: 75 Refugee and host community farmers will be empowered through livestock rearing (formation of 5 piggery rearing groups, receiving tailored support to establish and manage thriving piggery and goats’ enterprises, enhancing their livelihoods and economic well-being.

• Output 1.2: Approximately 450 farmers organized in 15 Farmer Field Schools, trained in climate-resilient / climate-smart agriculture (CSA), agroecology, post-harvest handling, and supported with farm inputs, tools, and VSLA methodology; Gender Action Learning Systems (GALS) components.

• Output 1.3: 90 farmers in 3 poultry farmer groups supported with Kuroiler birds, feed, veterinary services, and business skills for the poultry value chain.

• Outcome 2 / Output 2.1: Reduced reliance on biomass through clean energy solutions – community sensitization (target ~1,500 people), pilot households supported with solar cook stoves and lighting (including PSNs), institutional tree planting, and youth trained as ToTs for solar repair and maintenance.

Triple nexus approach:

The Final Evaluation will assess relevance, effectiveness, efficiency, impact, and sustainability against the log frame indicators and OECD-DAC criteria. This data analysis consultancy will not conduct a standalone evaluation of how well the triple nexus (humanitarian–development–peace) approach was deployed. Instead, the consultant will draw analytical insights from the quantitative and qualitative findings on:

  •  the extent to which the project applied elements of the triple nexus approach, and
  •  how (and whether) this contributed to the observed results in resilient livelihoods, climate-smart agriculture, poultry value-chain development, and clean-energy adoption.
  • Any claims about the contribution of the triple nexus approach will be based on triangulation of the available data and will clearly note limitations regarding attribution.

 Scope clarification:

The Final Evaluation and this data analysis consultancy focus on the project’s core intervention areas and their results:

• Livestock / piggery and goats’ enterprises (Output 1.1)

• Climate-smart agriculture / Farmer Field Schools and related support (Output 1.2)

• Poultry value chain (Output 1.3)

• Clean energy solutions (Output 2.1)

The triple nexus approach and gender/advocacy dimensions are treated as cross-cutting elements integrated within these core areas.

4. Purpose and Objectives:

  1.  Overall objective of the consultancy

The purpose of this consultancy is to provide independent, rigorous and reproducible quantitative and qualitative data analysis for the GLOW Project Final Evaluation. The consultant will clean, validate, analyze and interpret primary and secondary evaluation data to assess achievement of project outputs and outcomes, explain observed changes, examine differences across key population groups, and assess the project's contribution against the approved logical framework and relevant OECD-DAC evaluation criteria.

The analysis will focus on GLOW's contribution to resilient and environmentally sustainable livelihoods, women's and youth economic empowerment, climate-smart agriculture, poultry value-chain development and clean-energy adoption among refugee and host communities in Terego District. Findings will be triangulated across quantitative, qualitative and project-monitoring evidence and presented with clear limitations regarding attribution, sampling and data quality.

b. Specific objectives:

  •  Clean, validate, and organize all quantitative datasets (household surveys, monitoring data, PDM data, etc.) and qualitative transcripts/notes arising from the Final Evaluation data collection.
  • Conduct rigorous statistical and thematic analysis of quantitative indicators (e.g. % of participants reporting ≥20% income increase; # of businesses with ≥10% profit growth; % HHs consuming 3 meals/day; % income spent on food; CSA adoption; poultry results; clean energy utilization rates – all disaggregated by sex, age, disability, refugee/host status where available).
  • Analyze qualitative data (FGDs, KIIs, MSC stories, observations) using thematic, content, and intersectional approaches to surface explanations, lessons, gender dynamics, and unexpected outcomes.
  •  Triangulate quantitative and qualitative findings and map results against the GLOW logical framework and OECD-DAC criteria (relevance, effectiveness, efficiency, impact, sustainability, coherence).
  • Produce clear analysis outputs, tables, graphs, and narrative summaries that feed directly into the Final Evaluation Report draft.
  • Support the evaluation team/lead consultant (if separate) and Oxfam MEAL Officer with interpretation, validation of findings, and recommendations focused on women and youth empowerment, green livelihoods, and clean energy in the refugee and host community context of Imvepi/Terego.
  • Ensure all analysis adheres to Oxfam data protection, safeguarding, and ethical standards and is fully documented and reproducible.

  5.  Scope of Work: 

Technical scope 

This consultancy is primarily for analysis and synthesis of data collected through the GLOW Final Evaluation. The consultant will not be responsible for primary data collection unless specifically agreed in writing with Oxfam. The Final Evaluation fieldwork, including recruitment/training of enumerators, administration of household surveys, FGDs, KIIs and other primary data collection activities, will be managed separately by Oxfam.

  • Technical scope – Data Analysis for GLOW Final Evaluation
  • The consultant will work closely with the Oxfam MEAL Officer, the evaluation lead (if an external evaluation consultant is also engaged), and the AFCE project team. Core tasks include:
  • 1. Data Management and Cleaning
  •  Receive and organize all primary datasets (quantitative survey data, attendance/monitoring trackers, PDM data, VSLA records, distribution lists) and qualitative materials (transcripts, notes, MSC stories, photos with captions).
  •  Clean quantitative data: check for outliers, missing values, logical inconsistencies, duplicate records; apply consistent coding and labelling; create analysis-ready datasets with proper disaggregation variables (sex, age, disability, refugee/host, location, group type).
  • Organize and code qualitative data (thematic coding framework aligned to evaluation questions and log frame).

Quantitative Analysis

  •  Compute descriptive and comparative statistics against baseline values and targets for all relevant outcome and output indicators in the GLOW Results-Based Framework / Logical Framework.
  • Produce cross-tabulations and disaggregation by gender, age, disability, refugee vs host community, and enterprise/value-chain type.
  •  
  • Where the evaluation design, sample size and data quality permit, the consultant may apply appropriate inferential or comparative analysis. The consultant should not make causal, or attribution claims where the evaluation design does not support them.
  •  Generate clear tables, charts, and graphs suitable for the evaluation report and presentations.

Qualitative Analysis

• Conduct thematic and content analysis of FGDs, KIIs, life histories/MSC stories, and observation notes.

• Apply an intersectional gender lens (women, youth, PwD, refugee/host dynamics) consistent with Oxfam’s Gender Justice priorities and the project’s GALS components.

  1. Identify most significant changes, enabling and constraining factors, lessons, and unexpected outcomes related to green livelihoods, climate resilience, and clean energy.
  • Triangulation, Synthesis and Reporting Support
  • Triangulate quantitative and qualitative findings and map them against the evaluation questions, logframe, and OECD-DAC criteria.
  •  Draft analysis sections, findings narratives, indicator achievement tables, and recommendations for incorporation into the overall Final Evaluation Report.
  •  Support preparation of a concise PowerPoint presentation of key findings for the validation workshop and stakeholder debrief.
  •  Ensure all outputs are fully referenced, with clear data sources and limitations noted.

Time Scope

 Analysis of data collected during the Final Evaluation field period (approximately 18–27 August 2026) and any complementary secondary/monitoring data from the project lifetime.

  • Produce a comprehensive research report synthesizing key findings, contextual analysis, and thematic insights.

Geographical Scope: 

The final evaluation will cover GLOW implementation areas in Terego District, specifically Imvepi Refugee Settlement and the surrounding host communities. Analysis will be based on data collected from GLOW project participants and relevant comparison/context groups, where applicable.

6. Methodology

The consultant is expected to propose a detailed data analysis plan in the inception report. The plan must be consistent with the mixed-methods design of the GLOW Final Evaluation (as outlined in the Activity Concept Note) and the project MEAL Plan.

Expected analytical approaches include:

Quantitative: Descriptive statistics, cross-tabulations, comparison of endline vs baseline/targets, disaggregation by SADD (sex, age, disability) and refugee/host status, simple contribution or before-after analysis where design allows. Software: preferably SPSS, Stata, R, or Excel with clear documentation of syntax/code.

Qualitative: Thematic analysis, content analysis, framework analysis aligned to evaluation questions and log frame domains; coding of MSC stories and FGDs/KIIs; intersectional gender analysis. Software: NVivo, Atlas.ti, Dedoose, or systematic manual coding with a transparent codebook.

Triangulation and synthesis: Joint displays, contribution stories, and narrative synthesis that link quantitative indicator performance with qualitative explanations of how and why change occurred (or did not).

  • Quality assurance: Double-checking of key calculations, peer review of coding, clear documentation of limitations (sampling, response bias, attribution challenges in a multi-intervention setting), and adherence to Oxfam data protection standards.
  • The consultant will receive clean or raw datasets and transcripts from the field team / MEAL Officer. The consultant is responsible for further cleaning, analysis, and production of analysis products. All analytical decisions and code/syntax must be documented and handed over so that Oxfam can reproduce or update the analysis if needed.
  • Ethical and safeguarding considerations (informed consent already obtained in field, anonymization of datasets, secure data storage and transfer) must be strictly observed throughout the analysis phase.
  • Note on data sources: The consultant will analyse primary data (household surveys, FGDs, KIIs, MSC stories, monitoring/PDM data) already collected by the evaluation field team. Analysis will ensure disaggregation and inclusion of women, men, youth, persons with disabilities, and refugee/host community perspectives consistent with Oxfam standards.
  • Validation of findings: The consultant will support preparation of key analytical findings for the validation/debrief workshop with Oxfam, AFCE, and stakeholders. Feedback from validation will be incorporated into the final analysis package.
  • Sampling context (for analysis design): Sampling for the Final Evaluation fieldwork is managed separately by Oxfam. The analysis plan should account for the purposive/stratified design used (diversity by gender, age, refugee/host status, and disability) and note any limitations arising from sample size or selection.
  • Data Analysis approach: Quantitative and qualitative methods, thematic and intersectional analysis will be applied, highlighting how gender, age, disability, and refugee/host status shape outcomes related to green livelihoods, climate-smart agriculture, poultry value chains, and clean energy. The analyst will document analytical decisions and limitations transparently.
  • The data analysis consultancy will generate robust analytical evidence to inform programming, learning, accountability, and future design of green livelihood and clean energy interventions for refugees and host communities in Terego District. Key outputs feed into the Final Evaluation Report and related learning products.

The selected consultant will prepare a detailed methodology and share it with the Oxfam team for review and approval through an inception report.

7. Study outputs /Deliverables:

The consultant is expected to deliver the following within the agreed timeframe:

  •  Inception Report (within 5 days of contract signature): Detailed data analysis plan, proposed statistical and qualitative methods, software to be used, codebook outline, work plan, and any data quality issues identified after initial review of datasets.
  • Cleaned and fully documented quantitative datasets (Excel/SPSS/Stata/R format) with codebook and syntax/scripts used for cleaning and analysis.
  • Draft report.
  • Qualitative coding framework/codebook and coded transcripts or analysis files (as appropriate).
  •  Analysis outputs package: Indicator achievement tables (vs baseline and targets), disaggregated results, charts/graphs, and short narrative summaries of key quantitative findings.
  • Qualitative findings synthesis: Thematic summaries, selected MSC/quotes (anonymised), and analysis of gender, youth, disability, and refugee/host differentials.
  • Draft contribution to the Final Evaluation Report: Written findings sections, triangulation discussion, and draft recommendations linked to the analysis (format to be agreed with the evaluation lead / MEAL Officer).
  •  PowerPoint presentation of key analytical findings for the validation / debrief workshop.
  • Final analysis package and short technical note responding to any feedback from Oxfam and validation processes, including all final datasets, syntax, and documentation.
  • All outputs remain the property of Oxfam in Uganda and must be handed over in editable formats.
  • This consultancy will generate robust analytical evidence to inform programming, learning, accountability, and future design of green livelihood and clean energy interventions for refugees and host communities in Terego District.
  • Conclusions and Strategic Recommendations

Annexes (data collection tools, detailed tables, participant information)

  • Raw data in any of the following statistical packages (STATA, SPSS, Excel) and transcribed qualitative scripts.
  • Presentation: Present the data analysis consultancy findings and recommendations to Oxfam, key stakeholders and partners within 1 week of finalizing the report.
  • Incorporating feedback from validation, including executive summary, methodology, findings, and recommendations
  • Short technical note/summary of key findings and recommendations suitable for programme and donor audiences (as agreed with the MEAL Officer).

 Annexes:

  • Relevant maps and photographs of the data analysis consultancy areas where necessary
  • Bibliography of consulted secondary sources
  •  Finalized data collection tools
  • List of interviewees with accompanying informed consent forms.

8. Qualification and experience.

The consultant (individual or small team) should demonstrate:

  •  Advanced degree (master’s or higher) in Statistics, Economics, Monitoring & Evaluation, Development Studies, Social Sciences, or a closely related field. A postgraduate diploma or professional certification in MEAL/data analysis is an advantage.
  • Minimum 5 years of proven experience in quantitative and qualitative data analysis for project evaluations or research in humanitarian or development contexts, preferably livelihoods, food security, or climate-resilient agriculture programmes.
  •  Strong command of statistical software (SPSS, Stata, R, or equivalent) and qualitative analysis software or systematic coding approaches; ability to produce clean, well-documented datasets and reproducible analysis.
  • Demonstrated experience analyzing data against logical frameworks/results frameworks and applying or supporting OECD-DAC evaluation criteria.
  •  Experience working with data from refugee and host community settings in Uganda or similar contexts (West Nile experience is an added advantage).
  • Solid understanding of gender analysis and ability to produce sex-, age-, and disability-disaggregated analysis; familiarity with gender-responsive or intersectional approaches is desirable.
  • Excellent report-writing and data visualization skills in English; ability to translate complex analysis into clear findings and recommendations for programme and donor audiences.
  • Strong attention to detail, data protection awareness, and ability to work to tight deadlines while maintaining analytical rigour.
  • Experience supporting or working alongside evaluation teams and MEAL officers in collaborative analysis processes.
  • Experience in using participatory and engaging workshop facilitation methodologies (strongly preferred).
  • Strong English language skills required; other local languages an asset. Arabic is an added advantage.

9. Ethical Considerations:

The consultant must adhere to Oxfam’s ethical guidelines, data protection and safeguarding policies. All personal data must be anonymized in analysis outputs. Informed consent for data use in evaluation will have been obtained during field collection; the analyst must always maintain confidentiality and secure storage/transfer of datasets. Any secondary analysis of sensitive data requires prior agreement with Oxfam.

10. Timeline and estimated working days 

The consultancy will require up to 20 working days following receipt of the final evaluation datasets., timed to follow the Final Evaluation field data collection period (18–27 August 2026) and to feed into report drafting and validation in late August / early September 2026. Exact start date will be confirmed upon contract signature and receipt of cleaned field datasets. A detailed work plan will be agreed in the inception report.

11. Budget:

The consultant should submit a detailed financial proposal covering professional fees (daily rate × number of days), any software or analysis costs, limited travel if required for validation, and other relevant expenses. Oxfam will provide professional fees subject to the approved GLOW MEAL / Final Evaluation budget. The Consultant is responsible for declaration of income for tax purposes (6% withholding tax from the gross payment) payable to the Uganda Revenue Authority.

the Statutory Deductions: The Consultant will be responsible for declaration of the income for income tax purposes (i.e. 6% from the gross payment) payable to Uganda Revenue Authority in accordance with the income tax regulations of the Republic of Uganda.

13. Evaluation and award of Consultancy

Proposal study Criteria

The technical proposal will be evaluated based on the Quality Cost-Based Selection (QCBS) Criteria: 

  1. The individual's general reliability as well as experience and capacity in carrying out the assignment (30%).
  2. The approach in responding to the TOR and detailed work Oxfam in Uganda (45%).
  3. The qualifications and competencies of the proposed personnel for the assignment (25%). Proposals obtaining more than 70% of the technical points will be considered technically suitable and qualify for financial assessment.

Payment: The consultant will be paid 30% upon approval of the inception report/analysis plan and 70% upon submission and approval of the final analysis package and related deliverables. Technical fees will be subject to 6% withholding tax.

14. Supervision/management of the assignment

The consultancy will be supervised by the Oxfam MEAL Officer with support from the Area Manager and the Project Coordinator / Food Security & Livelihoods team. Day-to-day technical coordination will be with the MEAL Officer.

Oxfam Responsibilities: Provide all available datasets, project documents (logframe, MEAL plan, baseline, monitoring reports, Concept Note), facilitate introductions as needed, provide timely feedback on drafts, and ensure data protection protocols are followed.

  • Consultant Responsibilities: Deliver high-quality, transparent and reproducible analysis; adhere to Oxfam safeguarding, data protection and ethical standards; meet agreed deadlines; maintain clear communication; and hand over all datasets, code/syntax and documentation.
  • Facilitate introductions to key stakeholders and communities
  • Ensure safety and security protocols are in place
  • Provide feedback on deliverables within agreed timeframes
  • Support dissemination and utilization of findings

Consultant Responsibilities:

  • Adhere to Oxfam's safeguarding policies and ethical guidelines
  • Maintain the highest standards of research integrity
  • Ensure timely delivery of all outputs
  • Engage meaningfully with communities throughout the process
  • Provide capacity building/training of local research assistants

15. Submission of Technical and Financial Proposal:

Interested individual consultants or firms are invited to submit:

  •  Cover letter (max 2 pages) outlining relevant experience in data analysis for evaluations, especially livelihoods / humanitarian / refugee contexts.
  • Technical proposal responding to this ToR: understanding of the assignment, proposed analysis methodology and software, work plan, team composition (if any), and examples of similar previous analysis work.
  •  CV(s) of the lead analyst and any team members.
  •  Financial proposal with detailed budget (daily rates, number of days, any other costs) and tax considerations.
  •  At least two professional references and, where possible, a sample of a previous evaluation analysis or report (anonymised if necessary).
  •  Confirmation of availability for the August–September 2026 period.
  • Please submit the complete application package with the subject heading: “GLOW Final Evaluation Data Analysis Consultancy” to ugandalogistics@oxfam.org by the deadline to be confirmed (or as advertised).
  • Only shortlisted candidates will be contacted.
  • Proof of relevant certifications or registrations
  • List of proposed key activities, Level of effort, and timeframe 
  • Financial proposal which should include, among others;
  • Detailed budget breakdown by activity and line item
  • Daily rates for all personnel
  • Travel and accommodation costs
  • Data collection and analysis costs
  • All applicable taxes and fees

The application package should also include: 

  • A list of three references that can attest to their expertise as it relates to this assignment and /or Copies of similar evaluation reports conducted by the applicant where possible and/or a recommendation letter from an NGO’s who the consultant has worked with before.
  • Confirmation of availability for assessment period and ability to travel to project location.

Please ensure your submission email has the subject heading:

 “GLOW Final Evaluation Data Analysis Consultancy” to ugandalogistics@oxfam.org by 25th August, 2026 5:00 pm. 

 

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