How Uganda’s Forthcoming Oil Cash Can Actualize the Ten-Fold Growth Strategy

Uganda’s Ten-Fold Growth Strategy
The Ten-Fold Growth Strategy seeks to expand Uganda’s economy tenfold, targeting a US$500 billion GDP by 2040. Anchored in NDP IV (2025/26–2029/30), it prioritizes agro-industrialization, mineral-based industries, tourism, ICT/STI, infrastructure, and strengthened governance. The strategy aims to raise exports to 50% of GDP, national savings to 40% of GDP, and make manufacturing the engine of value addition, jobs, and higher incomes, transitioning Uganda to an industrial, export-led economy.

Oil Revenue Management in Uganda

The PFMA 2015 governs petroleum revenue management, ensuring accountability, transparency, and intergenerational benefit. 

Section 56 of PFMA, 2015 mandates all petroleum revenues be deposited into a dedicated Petroleum Fund managed by the Minister of Finance, with oversight from the Accountant General and Auditor General. 

Withdrawals require parliamentary approval and target infrastructure and development projects. A portion is allocated to the Petroleum Revenue Investment Reserve (PRIR), managed by the Bank of Uganda, to secure long-term returns. 

Section 75 prescribes that 94% of royalties go to the central government, while 6% are allocated to local governments, with half based on production impact. 
 

Gaps in Oil Revenue Management Potentially Affecting the Ten-Fold Growth Strategy

The oil revenue based ten fold growth strategy could be affected by some and not limited to following gaps; 

• Weak enforcement of fiscal rule: Guidelines for spending petroleum revenues are inconsistently applied, risking overspending, deficits, and macroeconomic instability.
• Lack of an oil revenue utilization plan: The PFMA 2015 lacks a clear strategy for allocating, investing, and spending petroleum revenues, leading to inefficiencies and missed development opportunities.
• Limited transparency and public accountability: Inaccessible or unclear revenue information reduces oversight, increasing risks of mismanagement and corruption.
• Underutilization of PRIR: Funds intended for long-term development are not effectively invested, limiting returns and the intergenerational benefit of petroleum wealth.

Policy Recommendations

For Uganda to harness oil revenue dividend, and race to actualise the ten-fold growth strategy, the following policy recommendations suffice;

• Strengthen enforcement of fiscal rules: Ensure strict adherence to the CFR and PFMA guidelines, limiting budget exposure to volatile oil revenues and promoting intergenerational equity.
• Develop a comprehensive oil revenue utilization plan: Clearly define how petroleum revenues will be allocated, invested, and spent to support priority sectors aligned with the 10-Fold Growth Strategy.
• Enhance transparency and public accountability: Publish regular, detailed reports on revenue inflows, allocations, and expenditures; engage civil society and local communities in oversight.
• Optimize PRIR investments: Establish clear investment strategies to maximize long-term returns, including diversified domestic and international investment portfolios.
• Strengthen local government capacity to manage royalties: Ensure capacity building of local governments to effectively and efficiently manage royalties that will be received by districts affected by oil production, with clear criteria linked to production impact.
• Promote complementary growth drivers: Use oil revenues to catalyse private sector investment, industrialization, infrastructure development, and human capital formation, reducing dependence on oil alone.